Thursday, January 31, 2008
More technical analysis of the Superferry troubles
Maybe we're getting a little self-referential here. In his post tonight, Superferry taking a beating in rough seas?, Doug White refers through my link to Juan Wilson's analysis of the Superferry's rudder troubles and adds expert analysis of his own.
This is a must read. Doug is a guy who knows his way around a ship. He differs from Juan on the rudder problem, but between the two of them, I have learned quite a bit.
Meanwhile, the Superferry's website advises that it will leave port tomorrow, but on a revised schedule, leaving Oahu at 9:30 a.m. Presumably it will do so with all rudders operating. Juan said it should take longer to fix the problem. Who's right?
This Just In: As I am typing this article at around 9:45 p.m., the Superferry website has changed its Travel Alert. It's not going out tomorrow.
By leaving Oahu late, the predicted swell for Friday should have decreased. I'm not sure I understand how to interpret the NOAA forecasts, but for Friday for Maui they predict:
East winds to 25 kt. Wind waves 9 ft. Northwest swell 4 ft decreasing to 3 ft
I think that translates into a Level 3 - Orange - puke alert on the Barf-o-Meter. This means that it is probable that some passengers will be very uncomfortable (Brad, if I've got this wrong, please correct me). Coming back from Maui might be smoother as the seas calm down later in the day. They'll have time in port at Maui to swab and disinfect the decks if necessary.
And the rudder should stay stuck on if they've repaired it properly.
Superferry: structural failure?
Thanks to Brad Parsons for pointing to this excellent article by Juan Wilson.
Juan has some great pics of the computerized "Seastate" steering system used by the Superferry and a lot of information on the rudder problem that this large capacity passenger ferry is experiencing.
Juan describes the problem as a serious structural failure, and a disaster for the ferry corporation. Not just a PR nightmare (if the dailies ever cover it), but something serious enough to doom its military future (awww...).
It's a long article and I don't want to quote snippets. Check it out.
In contrast to the dire prediction that Juan is making, the Superferry website insists, as of a couple of minutes ago, that it will be sailing on Friday:
So I guess we just wait and see. Too bad though about those 30 or so vehicles stuck on the dock on Maui (and maybe some on Oahu too). They might be home again tomorrow, as this Travel Alert says, or if Juan is right, maybe not yet.
Equal time for the Advertiser's typos
Line of flight commented on my earlier copy editing post:
Having worked in the newsprint medium for several years and then reading The Elements of Typographic Style, my life both in words and in their setting will never be the same. If only I could turn a blind eye to the small errors and word processors generic kerning. But for the dailies, there is hardly any justification.
I'm relieved that I am not the only reader of The Elements of Typographic Style in the state. I wonder if line of flight has noticed the Advertiser's selection of typeface since their makeover in 2004. Since nobody cares about this at all (even over at the Advertiser?) but perhaps the two of us, let me skip that until the end of this post.
I just thought I should give equal time to the Advertiser's copy editors as long as I was having a little fun at the Star-Bulletin's expense.
Mostly, I think they do very well. Keep in mind that a good deal of copyediting these days is done by the reporters and writers themselves. Unlike the days of yore when manual typewriters ruled, everyone now has spell checkers and access to an AP program that is supposed to standardize usage. Or I assume they do. Anyway, check out Jerry Burris' column, Hawaii caucuses will matter, in yesterday's paper. I'm not picking on Jerry, just his copy editors.
But in presidential years, interest soars dramatically. That's certainly the case this time around. Democrats meet Feb. 19 to begin their delegate selection process, and the party reports a surge of new interest in attending the caucuses.
I thought they were meeting Feb. 29. Maybe they are also meeting Feb. 19, or this could be a typo.
[Update: Rachel corrects me in comments, below. The caucus is Feb. 19. She directs us to the website of the Progressive Democrats of Hawaii for information.]
Just a paragraph down:
There is less activity on the Republican side, largely because the GOP handles most of the delegate selection process within the state convention itself. But for the Democrats, the candidate preference of the bulk of Hawai'i's 29 delegates to the national convention will be decided by those Feb. 29 caucuses.
In the same article:
Other slots, such as at-large and unfledged party leaders, will be allocated according to the preferences of those elected at the caucuses.
I like that about the Democratic party, the young and inexperienced party leaders thing. Thanks, Jerry, for this Freudian(?) typo. Or thanks to the copy editor, if there is one.
Ok, the typeface thing. You can leave now, I know no one at all is interested in this.
In the middle of 2004 the paper settled on Poynter Old Style for body type. This is a modern design created by or for the Poynter Institute, and has also been used effectively by the St. Petersburg Times, for example. But the Advertiser overuses the same typeface for headlines. There are better choices. The St. Petersburg Times uses a variety of typefaces for headlines. If one reads the Advertiser every day, one gets used to an unusually bland use of typefaces.
Why should you care? You shouldn't. I'm talking about a lost art, something children are no longer taught at school, and something newspapers may no longer care about.
Just something else gone extinct in Hawaii.
Superferry: count of stranded vehicles
Many thanks to Dick Mayer for sending a count of vehicles stranded on Maui by the Superferry's five-day (so far) cancellation:
With regard to the number of cars stranded:
I went to the Kahului Harbor piers on Wednesday noon, and counted 4 rows of 7-8 cars probably waiting to be shipped back to Honolulu. Several were large pick-ups.
I wonder if the SF folks will be reimbursing drivers who may have flown back home to Honolulu, so they can now fly back to get their vehicles, or will HSF require drivers to take the SF back to Maui (and charge them for the trip)?
Mahalo for keeping the issue alive (more alive than the SF).--Dick Mayer (Maui)
Several points I'd like to make on this, if I may:
- Shouldn't we be reading about this in the big daily papers?
- About 30+ individuals or families have been inconvenienced. Shouldn't legislators and the public be informed about this, especially given the large number of cancellations?
- What does this say about low ferry utilization? There are only about 30 or so vehicles stranded. Maybe some owners shipped them back via Young Bros. barge, or maybe it means that very few people are using the ferry in the first place. Enquiring minds want to know.
From the frying pan into the fire
Biodiesel magazine posted what to me is a confusing article yesterday:
Hawaiian environmental advocates oppose palm oil
By Bryan Sims
Web exclusive posted Jan. 30, 2008, at 4:32 p.m. CST
Major environmental and cultural organizations in Hawaii have reaffirmed their stances on opposing a “palm oil pipeline” intended for large-scale biodiesel production on the islands.
Hawaii is the most petroleum-dependent state in terms of electrical production, with more than 90 percent of the state’s energy needs coming from imported oil. Despite abundant renewable energy sources from solar, wind and hydroelectric power, Hawaiian Electric Co. Inc. has spent the past year supporting proposals to construct two large biodiesel plants—one by Imperium Renewables Inc. on Oahu and one by BlueEarth Biofuels LLC on Maui. Both intend to use imported palm oil from Indonesia and/or Maylasia as a feedstock.
In October , HECO and the Natural Resources Defense Council finalized a policy to ensure that HECO’s two electric companies—Maui Electric and Hawaii Electric Light Co.—would only purchase biodiesel fuel produced from locally grown, sustainable feedstocks and palm oil. These feedstocks would comply with international standards established by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, an international organization made up of more than 200 members who represent all facets of the palm oil industry.
I'm just a little confused about where they stand on this. "Despite abundant renewable energy sources from solar, wind and hydroelectric power, Hawaiian Electric Co. Inc. has spent the past year supporting proposals to construct two large biodiesel plants" implies opposition?? I mean, I think we're missing out big time by ignoring sun, wind and wave sources of power. Human too, if you count the replacement value of encouraging bicycle transportation, which we totally ignore. But this is Biodiesel Magazine, after all, shouldn't they be pushing their product?
I've always been confused with the state's policy on both ethanol and now biodiesel. As above, it looks like HECO will only buy biodiesel grown locally. That's cool, unless there isn't any, in which case the above implies that they'll continue to burn imported oil.
Same with the ethanol fiasco. You may know that it seems to require more energy to produce alcohol from corn than the stuff gives back, and of course we're shipping it here from outside, and using expensive petroleum to get it here. Plus, using ethanol for fuel has disrupted much of the world's corn supply as farmers divert production from food to fuel.
This article doesn't compute for me. In fact, the whole thing doesn't compute. Are we planning our alternative energy project the same way we're planning Mufi's train? If so, it's doomed.
Copyediting--a lost art, and Britney Spears
I was copy editor and then managing editor of our college newspaper, so my brain was thoroughly conditioned to pounce on tiny little typos that really don't matter much. In fact, I appreciated the little bloopers because most of the articles student reporters turned in were so bad that it would be cause for celebration if there were only a small typo or two.
Some typos are funny. LIke the principal the DOE allowed to remain at Laupahoehoe High and Elementary School for 112 years in today's Star-Bulletin.
Probably thinking enough is enough, the DOE put him on administrative leave. The article gives no hint whatsoever about why they waited this long or what motivated the decision. It's probably with pay, so he might well continue to earn a salary for the next couple of decades while they figure out how to oust him permanently.
[Update: I see that the S-B has fixed the 112 year typo. Good news for me, I have at least one reader over there. Or maybe an anonymous source tipped them off.]
I was checking this morning's Star-Bulletin to try and find out about the two people who ended up on the H-1 Freeway yesterday (am I supposed to capitalize "freeway?" Gotta be careful if I'm going to write about copy editing...). There wasn't much in the print Advertiser this morning. They ran the breaking news from last night that I linked to in the previous article.
The news was hidden 'way down on page B2, tucked into the left corner under the obituaries. And under the tiny story about the Superferry cancellation for today. (If you're looking for the Advertiser's coverage on the Superferry problems, please continue to check the obituary page. It's close to dead).
One paper or the other has the story backwards. The Advertiser reported:
Earlier today, a 32-year-old woman injured in a 3:45 a.m. fall onto the H-1 Freeway's westbound lanes near Halona Street in Kalihi died at Queen's at 4:29 a.m.
While the Star-Bulletin reports:
Shortly afterward, police received a call about a woman lying in the middle of Halona Street. Police said the woman apparently fell from the freeway onto Halona Street. Preliminary investigation revealed no signs that the woman was hit by a vehicle, police said.
Even though this is on the same page as the 112 year reign of the Laupahoehoe principal, it has that air of truthiness about it, don't you think?
I'll leave the editors to duke it out on this one, who fell from where onto what, when (those Ws journalists are supposed to worry about first thing).
While checking today's breaking news to see if anyone else had ended up on the freeway (lower case is ok this time I think), I also learned that according to "a police officer who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the matter" that Britney Spears had just escaped from her home again in an ambulance.
Have you noticed how many news stories now depend on someone "who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the matter?" I imagine newspapers would be much thinner if stories based on all these unauthorized anonymous people were suddenly banned. Papers would be thicker, on the other hand, if they would stop firing reporters who research stories by interviewing real people.
And of course, with the rash of stories based entirely on these dubious sources, I'm wondering how I can get to be one myself. I'm not authorized to speak on much at all, and I am quite happy not to give my name. So any young reporter wanting to make that big front-page splash (is front-page hyphenated?), just give me a call and I'll tell you anything you want to know.
By the way, Britney's escape was very cleverly planned to get her past the huge crowd of paparazzi:
The crowd of photographers and news trucks outside her gated home was larger than normal Wednesday night.
At least, I think it was clever. If a reporter wants to ask me anything about Britney Spears, bring on the questions. I'm happy to answer any and all of them anonymously, and I'm totally unauthorized to say anything about Ms Spears. And I'm ready to spill all. Just call me.
I'm your perfect source on anything Britney.
Why are people suddenly falling onto the H-1 freeway?
Two in one day: H-1 westbound near Liliha overpass reopened.
What's going on here? Suddenly we have people dropping onto the freeway.
I was wondering if there would be copycat events after the child was thrown from the Miller Street pedestrian bridge. I hope these adult incidents were not like that.
These incidents reminded me that every time I cross the Nuuanu Avenue bridge over the H-1, I wonder if the side rails are too low.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Day 5 and counting...
I thought I was losing count, but Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday comes to five days canceled....
My sympathies if your car is still on the wrong island.
The Advertiser ran what looks like a Superferry announcement in its breaking news this morning: Hawaii Superferry voyages canceled again today. Wouldn't it be nice if they reported on the forest, not just the one tree? And the line about "special rental car rates are available for impacted passengers" should be tested. The 5% discount doesn't seem very "special" to me, and I wonder if it could be beat by checking one of the on-line discount travel sites. C'mon, Superferry, give 50% off at least.
Puhleez don't just tell me about the special rental car rates every day. Give me some real news. Remember when there were special sessions of the Legislature? This is a big deal!
Part of the big picture is that passengers have been inconvenienced for five days so far. Are there cars stranded? Is produce intended for Oahu markets rotting or thrown out? Is anyone unhappy?
The other part of the big picture I'd like to see (and I know I could do this myself, but this is only a blog) is a calendar with canceled days Xd off in red, or something like that. The days canceled for barge repair count also, you know. That would be an interesting graphic to print.
I know that the ferry company has not taken up my suggestion to turn the ship into a floating restaurant anchored in port. Pity. It's been tied up on Oahu all this time. We could have partied! A special few government officials might be invited to dine at the Captain's Table.
At least, they could have offered discount day parking or shown movies or something. Why not Sunset on the Ferry instead of on the beach, when it's just sitting there doing nothing anyway?
Unreliability was obviously not part of the ferry plan, but now what?
Yes, the Governor and most legislators were all gung-ho to support the hype around this new service. And indeed, an interisland ferry service may make sense, but so far, this one is disappointing.
It's not just the loss of service days. Real, individual lives are negatively impacted by cancellations and no doubt some businesses too.
The best summary I've seen appeared in this insightful observation by Maui resident Karen Anderson:
I really want to hear the passenger stories on this one. Sail over for the weekend and get stranded for five days! What to do? Spend big bucks on accommodations and just wait it out? Or book a last-minute flight for big bucks and leave your car behind, then rent a car when you get home so you can get around? Then wait for your car to arrive on the next non-canceled voyage, but be sure to bring someone with you because you'll have to drop off your rental car on the way. Jeeze... thank god Superferry really goes out of its way to help, what with the 5% rental car discount!!
Many of us have experienced airplane flight cancellations. But at least your car isn't in limbo also. After reading Karen's email, I had a greater appreciation for the major hassle faced by anyone taking their vehicle on the ferry and not being able to get it back. And what if it's a business truck loaded with tools?
The newspapers wrote about all the happy passengers, but who is checking into the inconvenience caused by the numerous cancellations? :) ---> :(
There's been little payback so far for the Governor's efforts. Too many cancellations, low passenger counts when it runs. As we look toward this weekend, the ferry has not run for three days and tomorrow may not be a good day for them either (if they do sail in rough seas, it won't be too good for the passengers).
Had an EIS been completed, the expectations might have been lower. People would know that the service is really an "as available" add-on to existing air service. Perhaps a different ship configuration might have worked better.
Maybe an expedited way to get vehicles across the water would be a better deal. In other words, people fly, meet their car on the other side. I'm just thinking out loud, but we actually did that returning from Sapporo to Tokyo when we lived there. The car was on the ferry, and although the seas were rough, we didn't hear any complaints from it when we met it at the dock in Tokyo the next day. We had a great flight, with fine views of snow-capped mountains, and even a decent lunch included. No sea sickness cruising along at 10,000 meters. I was able to take the subway to pick up my car, no rental necessary. The ferry company offloaded cars into a parking lot where they could be conveniently claimed. It was included in the fare.
Existing services on Maui have to make way for the ferry barge, which is probably very disruptive to commerce. To remedy that, the state is planning a huge investment in proposed harbor improvements. It's an investment which at present only benefits a single company.
Shouldn't we learn from this experience and make a better plan? Why not start now?
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
4th cancellation in a row for Superferry
… and airlines have reduced fares in a February promotion: $29 tickets renew airfare battle. They're more reliable too, though there's still the inconvenience of that TSA inspection and harassment.
Drug sniffing dogs fail to reduce usage at a Maui public high school
Reading the Star-Bulletin report, I was wondering how come it seems sometimes that our educators can't learn.
At Board of Education testimony yesterday, according to the article, Ron Okamura, superintendent of the Hana-Lahaina-Lanai-Molokai complex, testified that after the dogs left his campus, drug finds increased. He said that students are not afraid to bring drugs to the campus now.
But he doesn't realize that this indicates the program is a failure. Students have learned nothing, according to his very own report.
This point was not missed by those who understand that there are effective educational programs proven to reduce drug use. Maui could have used one of those instead:
But Jeanne Ohta, executive director of the Drug Policy Forum of Hawaii, said the program did not prevent students from using or bringing drugs to campus once the dog was gone.
"An effective program is supposed to reduce drug use in the long term," she said.
Ohta and other critics of the searches, including the American Civil Liberties Union -- which contends they violate students' privacy -- have testified against the initiative. They have been urging the board to instead consider programs that scientific studies have shown reduce substance abuse by students.
I understand that the Maui principal countered that they do use DARE in addition to the dog program. Trouble is, DARE has been shown to be ineffective, and the Board of Education understands that. It doesn't affect the drug use statistics if students participate in a DARE program or if they do not.
Before they can educate students about drug abuse prevention, it seems that Maui educators need to educate themselves.
Danny Schechter's quotes of the day
Quotes worth passing on, I thought, from today's News Dissector:
"Why shouldn't truth be stranger than fiction? Fiction, after all, has to make sense." -Mark Twain
AN IRONY FROM A READER: "This year, both Groundhog Day and the State of the Union Address fall on the same day. It is an ironic juxtaposition: one involves a meaningless ritual in which we look to a creature of little intelligence for prognostication. The other involves a groundhog.""Every question, if it's a truthful question,can be answered by askin' it." Bob Dylan
"He who can lead you to believe an absurdity, can lead you to commit an atrocity." Voltaire
The rest of Danny's posts today, dissecting the State of the Union address and the "tepid" Democratic response, and more, is a must-read.
Worth repeating here also, from Danny's post today, a quote from Greg Palast:
In his State of the Union, the President asked Congress for $300 million for poor kids in the inner city. As there are, officially, 15 million children in America living in poverty, how much is that per child? Correct! $20.
Here’s your second question. The President also demanded that Congress extend his tax cuts. The cost: $4.3 trillion over ten years. The big recipients are millionaires. And the number of millionaires happens, not coincidentally, to equal the number of poor kids, roughly 15 million of them. OK class: what is the cost of the tax cut per millionaire? That’s right, Richie, $287,000 apiece.
Mr. Bush said, “In neighborhoods across our country, there are boys and girls with dreams. And a decent education is their only hope of achieving them.”
So how much educational dreaming will $20 buy?
Check out the News Dissector, his blogs and his documentaries. Subscribing to his email list brings you dissections in your mailbox, an effortless way to keep in touch with Danny and the news.
Monday, January 28, 2008
A glimpse at Hawaii's new friends, the Indonesian military killers
If you would like to see the kind of atrocity that the Indonesian military is capable of, check out the Democracy Now! program that aired this evening. It's still on the web here. You can get video, audio or read the transcript.
This is the very same Indonesian military that Gov. Linda Lingle is cozying up to and providing assistance to.
An excerpt from Amy Goodman and Allan Nairn’s award-winning documentary on the Santa Cruz massacre, in which the Indonesian military gunned down more than 270 Timorese, and the history of Indonesian and US involvement in East Timor.
JAMES BAKER: Big countries with powerful military machines should not be permitted to invade, occupy and brutalize their peaceful neighbors.
AMY GOODMAN: With these words, former Secretary of State James Baker explained why the United States was going to war against Iraq. Yet, 16 years earlier, another big country, Indonesia, invaded a much smaller one, East Timor, with the support of the United States. What followed was one of the greatest genocides of the 20th century. It is estimated that up to one-third of the Timorese population has been killed through a policy of army massacre and enforced starvation. Many of those who are left have been imprisoned and tortured by a military armed and trained by the United States.
Why should peace loving Hawaii assist the Indonesian military with helicopter repairs or anything else? We should unequivocally condemn what they have done and what they stand for and have absolutely nothing to do with them.
Where is the outrage?
Microsoft admits that Something went wrong...
Honest, I got this error message today while checking websites for readability index. I had just plugged in poinography.com when Internet Explorer popped up this dialogue box:
Well, duhh, can't Bill Gates with all his billions and the entire crew of Microsoft tell me something more specific?
For those who are interested in these things, a better set of readability tests can be found here.
Barf happens--now we can measure it
Hey—if you're planning to go hiking or camping, you'd check the weather, right? No sense going out on the trail if it's going to be mud.
Surfers have their surf reports. Those who live in cold places can check the ski forecast. Temperature, wind, clouds and precipitation are routinely translated for us into conditions on the slope.
The idea is to know before you go.
Shouldn't we have the same ability to check before embarking on an interisland ferry trip in often choppy Hawaiian waters? In this case, it's the comfort of the ride that we might be interested in.
If the sea is calm, the trip is likely to be enjoyable. Clear weather, flat ocean, no camera shake, great views. If, on the other hand, the wind is high and the waves spectacular, you'd best leave the lens cap on to protect the camera from projectile barfing. Or take an airplane instead.
One day perhaps, we'll be able to turn on the radio and check the barf index before planning a trip. The Honolulu Advertiser has documented what can happen to ferry passengers who depart in innocent ignorance of roller coaster conditions along the route.
Looking towards that day, a barf index is under development and has already received national notice on the website of Improbable Research.
Who knows, the Barf-o-Meter may be on its way to winning an Ig Noble Prize.
Superferry cancels three days in a row...
The summer will be better. But the frequent cancellations further cast doubt on whether the ferry can be used for commercial purposes. I'm also wondering if they really waited until 4:30 p.m., as this alert from their website indicates, before making the decision to cancel.
It's one thing to go on vacation with the kids, spouse, dogs, cats, gerbils, etc., and find you're stranded, and quite another if your business
depends on getting the truck back for appointments already made.
Ridership may pick up steadily once the winter weather is past, if the ferry can sustain operating continually at a loss. In other words, will they still be around?
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Working folks are gonna miss Kucinich
One of things that most debate moderators found so frustrating about Kucinich was his determination to talk about the bread-and-butter issues that matter most to working Americans, rather than to play their games.
Kucinich forced the anchormen and the reporters, as well as the other candidates, to pay a little attention to the problems of factory workers, shop clerks and farmers. There is no question that the Ohioan's determination to do this influenced more prominent and well-funded contenders, especially former North Carolina Senator John Edwards. [The Nation: With Kucinich's Exit, Democratic Discourse is Diminished]
Don't get burned by alternative energy schemes
I posted a comment yesterday to Ian Lind's article, Check this! Huge energy plan to be announced? that I'd like to elaborate here.
Ian posted links to two articles on the Lingle administration's proposed alternative energy plans in cooperation with the federal government. I wrote:
It’s about time.
But it has been predicted that alternative energy is the upcoming bubble, so investors should be cautious. I don’t have the source with me right now, but the theory is that a new bubble forms as the old one collapses. The housing bubble is collapsing, so I guess the gods of the economy would welcome this new one.
Not that dot coms, housing or alternative energy are bad things. It’s just that to have winners in the investment world you need losers. Bubbles generate large numbers of losers among foolish investors so that others may prosper. Especially, for example, Wall Street folks who reaped huge year-end bonuses even as housing and mortgage bubbles burst around the less elite.
Of course, Hawaii could gain in the process. On the personal level, though, “Don’t take any wooden nickels” or invest in any wooden windfarms.
I have that source for you. Check out Alternative Energy, Alternative Media, & Asset Bubbles, and the article that it, in turn, references: The next bubble: Priming the markets for tomorrow's big crash.
We have learned that the industry in any given bubble must support hundreds or thousands of separate firms financed by not billions but trillions of dollars in new securities that Wall Street will create and sell. Like housing in the late 1990s, this sector of the economy must already be formed and growing even as the previous bubble deflates. For those investing in that sector, legislation guaranteeing favorable tax treatment, along with other protections and advantages for investors, should already be in place or under review. Finally, the industry must be popular, its name on the lips of government policymakers and journalists. It should be familiar to those who watch television news or read newspapers.
Perhaps, before this bubble's time is up, we might derive some lasting benefit from it. But watch out, and don't get burned by alternative energy schemes.
See also this article for a discussion of rational and irrational bubbles. A snippet:
"A rational bubble," explains Richard Dale in his excellent history of 1720's South Sea Bubble - The First Crash - "is characterised by the continuing rise in the price of an asset, generated by the belief that this price rise will persist...Investors understand that the bubble will eventually burst...[but] they expect to be compensated for the risk of a price collapse."
And an irrational bubble? It arises, says Professor Dale, "where the relationship between asset prices and fundamental values breaks down...Investors have totally unrealistic expectations about a company's future profitability and therefore dividend-paying capacity."
In other words, irrational bubbles display the most rational behaviour according to the academics. Investors keep buying because they believe - wrongly, as it turns out - that they're making a rational investment in rock-solid investments. Rational bubbles, on the other hand, mean everyone knows that things have got out of hand. But they keep holding anyway, hoping to exit before the last fool catches on.
Conservation counts too, maybe as much, maybe more. Cut down your consumption and save! It's a no-brainer on a personal level and it should be embraced also by our government at all levels.
Honolulu Advertiser dumbs down its comics in overnight coup
Hey... they've messed with my comics page. It's the one thing that convinces me to renew my subscription when the bill comes every year [actually, see this before you pay your bill]. The one thing that makes me pay instead of just surfing the web for news is always the comics.
I know I can get the comics on-line also, but it's just not the same somehow. The comics section is my comfort food. It's my escape into a simpler, more fun world. I wish they wouldn't mess with it.
And the section is significantly "dumbed down" now. I don't blame the editors for not understanding the literary references in Frazz, maybe literature wasn't their best subject in school. I'm sure many readers love this comic. By eliminating Frazz, the Fog Index of the comic section has already dropped significantly.
And Cathy is back. Aaargh! She has not appeared since her marriage and banishment from the page in 2005. She was getting boring (though I'm sure there is an army of Cathy followers who would disagree with me and are happy to see her back).
B.C. is back too. Some papers have been pulled this strip from their comics pages due to its religious proselytizing. I haven't seen a Los Angeles Times recently but if I remember correctly, they put B.C. in their religious section. The Advertiser might do the same.
And Shortcuts, that educational panel at the bottom of the last page, is gone too, contributing to the dumbing down big time. I learned a thing or two from that feature, and I'm sure many kids' interests in science and the natural world were sparked by something they saw in Shortcuts.
I didn't see anything in the paper explaining the change. In the past they even sought public input. What's the story here, editors?
And while I'm on the subject, has anyone noticed that placing the flooring ad on the left side instead of the right has broken up the section and made it hard to hold together? Better for the ad, maybe, but worse for the reader. At least they're not printing the comic section sideways, we should be thankful for that. Grrr.
At last-a tax refund to stimulate the economy
What a great idea! Bring it on.
I can hardly wait to buy that new Sony HDTV. and it's about time we bought a new Honda Civic.
Let's celebrate with a bottle of Champagne!
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Gov. Lingle threatens public education in Hawaii
The latest skirmish in Gov. Linda Lingle's own statewide war on drugs could cost Hawaii's children dearly. She has threatened to withhold pay raises for teachers if the Department of Education does not implement a teacher drug testing provision of the current contract. Should she do that, teachers might resume their strike, setting back education throughout the state.
That provision was stuck into the contract as a non-negotiable demand at the last minute. Lingle has refused to pay for the expensive testing and argues that money should come out of school funds. So what if the children don't have textbooks.
The state Board of Education voted last night not to fund a plan to drug test public school teachers, casting doubts as to whether the program will be able to start by a June 30 deadline required in a new contract.
Board members voted 7-0 to reject a motion calling for some $400,000 to pay for the random and reasonable-suspicion drug tests each year of as many as 3,250 teachers, or one in four employees.
Several board members called the testing "an unfunded mandate" and criticized Gov. Linda Lingle's administration for failing to include money to pay for the testing in her request to the Legislature.
"Let her fund it," said board member Breene Harimoto, who said the program was "offensive."[Star-Bulletin 1/25/08]
Lingle failed to break up the state-wide Board of Education during her first term, and candidates for the BOE that she backed in order to gain control of the Board did not win seats. The refusal to fund the unpopular drug testing provision of the teacher's contract fits into the sequence neatly.
This issue combines her push for enforcement and incarceration over education and treatment in her own war on drugs with an easy assault on the educational system. If teachers should strike, wouldn't she blame the school closure on the teachers or the Board of Education? And would she care how long the strike continues?
It's not likely that she will back down and agree to fund the teacher drug testing program.
President Bush will be gone later this year, but Hawaii's problem continues until 2010.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Strong opposition voiced to the Kahului Harbor 2030 master plan
Check out this long, detailed article in the Maui News. It may be a fair enough summary of community objections to the state's plan to completely change the character of the harbor for the benefit of the Superferry and other commercial interests, riding roughshod over community uses of the harbor.
The strength of Neighbor Island solidarity against state and commercial encroachment is quite impressive. I have no way of knowing if the Maui News article is accurate or complete, but reading it makes it clear that Maui intends to have its say on this.
As the article makes clear, there are alternatives. The very first testifier, Foster Ampong, had a suggestion:
Ampong and others said that expanding the harbor does not promote long-term sustainability, it just aids unabated growth. A common solution offered by plan opponents was to move all the cruise ships to Lahaina or Maalaea Harbor, where they said that the tourists really want to be anyway.
The end of the article includes ways for the public to present its comments on the draft EIS. The deadline is February 28. See the article for details.
Giuliani column misleads
The Advertiser's op-ed today, Giuliani putting all his chips on Florida describes Rudy Giuliani's race for the Republican presidential nomination as "struggling" and repeats the inaccuracy that Giuliani didn't pay attention to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina because he planned to focus on Florida. Carl Leubsdorf writes:
In essence, Giuliani decided to challenge historical precedent by bypassing Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. He calculated that a former big-city mayor who failed to share his party's opposition to abortion rights and gun control was unlikely to do well there, despite a split among his conservative rivals.
Actually, Giuliani tried hard in those three states but lost anyway. Flat out lost. As Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, among others, has pointed out:
Giuliani spent a lot of money in Iowa, campaigned very hard in New Hampshire, and for months we were reading long articles about him cultivating a serious base in South Carolina—but he bailed on those states once he started slipping.
In the same column Leubsdorf admits:
But Giuliani reached his decision [to skip those states] only after spending a lot of time and money in all three states, especially New Hampshire.
It's hard to see how this writer can hold both points of view simultaneously, or why the Advertiser would choose this particular op-ed. It does fit, though, with the shallowness of their election coverage so far. Instead of hard-hitting analysis of issues, positions and voting records we've had rather superficial reviews that didn't fail to mention Edward's hair, as an example.
Maybe the editors receive their marching orders from above. Who knows. It was a Gannett newspaper that kicked Kucinich out of the debate they sponsored, after all, and thus was making news itself instead of reporting on it.
Newspapers (and other media) selectively influence public opinion in many ways, including, of course, their choice of op-eds to print.
What happened at the Akaku hearing yesterday
I wrote Wednesday that Akaku's motion would be heard on Thursday in its ongoing challenge to the state's plan to put the public access television contracts on each island out to competitive bidding.
This should concern us all, because (among other problems) the state isn't requiring a potential contract winner to have any public access experience, only TV experience. So a subsidiary of Fox News, for example, could win a contract in Hawaii.
There was a Maui News story, but what happened, if I understand it correctly, is that Judge Joel August continued the motion until the state comes up with some rules on the bidding process. He did not rule on whether the state's decision to put the current contracts out to bid was lawful or unlawful, and in fact, they don't have to make rules that adopt procurement, they just need to get some rules.
Now, if the state comes up with rules, which they are working on, then as I understand it, part of the motion becomes moot and probably that's the end of it. I'm not sure about this, though no doubt the attorneys are clear on it. I'll find out more if I can.
For those who (like me) are concerned but confused about different actions to preserve public access television, I would like to recap that the process seems to have been rigged from the get go. A vote was taken after a secret meeting held without public notice. After 2 hours 12 minutes of some kind of secret discussion, a vote was taken that flew in the face of the testimony of hundreds of people. Why take public testimony when the plan is to ignore it?
A lot more can be said. I'm not sure what the public can do at this point—what can be done when open meetings laws are ignored, the OIP has taken no action on it, and public testimony is cast aside in favor of a clearly political decision?
It feels to me like we're getting screwed by the state on this.
Lee Cataluna, meet Ian Lind
Ok, my paper arrived. I really appreciate many things about the Honolulu Advertiser. For example, it's occasional coverage of the situation in Burma. And always, Lee Cataluna's columns. I don't appreciate their selection of national commentators, but that's another article.
In today's column, Beware of Lingle 'legacy', Lee questions Lingle's announcement during her State of the State address that she'd like to pick up ownership of the Turtle Bay resort for the state. Cataluna's closing paragraph:
It's hard to believe that Lingle would throw in such a huge, flapping red herring in a time when there are so many other pressing issues to be dealt with. It hardly seems a capricious move. She has no history of being a capricious leader. Quite the contrary. She's very plotting. Like a chessmaster, she plays the whole match in her head before the first move. She must be up to something.
Lee Cataluna has questions. Ian Lind is working on answers.
Troubling Hawaii ties to Indonesian military intensify
My copy of the Advertiser hasn't even been delivered yet, but the on-line article, Isle ties with Indonesia growing, rang alarm bells even at this early hour.
Hawai'i National Guard soldiers will participate in a military exercise in Indonesia in April, the Southeast Asian nation will take part in a hurricane exercise here in March, and Indonesian noncommissioned and junior officers may train at Hawai'i National Guard facilities.
The military-to-military engagement is part of Hawai'i's emerging relationship with the world's largest Muslim country, and stems from the National Guard Bureau's efforts to link U.S. states with foreign countries.
As the article lays out, the military relationship goes beyond disaster preparedness. It will be of significant benefit to the corrupt and murderous Indonesian military organization, and Hawaii will therefore be complicit in their future human rights abuses.
The article only touches on the problem in a single paragraph:
U.S. military ties with Indonesia were cut by the Clinton administration in 1999 over human rights concerns. The Bush administration restored full military relations with Indonesia in 2005.
See also these earlier Disappeared News articles related to Governor Linda Lingle's trip to Indonesia.
Ian Lind discovers some background to Lingle's proposed purchase of Turtle Bay
Just moments ago I sleepily tuned my browser to Ian Lind's blog and discovered his post revealing that the registered agent for Turtle Bay developer Kuilima Development Co is listed as Joe Pickard, identified by Ian as a significant contributor to Lingle's campaigns. There's much more in the article, you need to read it.
My eyes are now wide open. It worked better than strong coffee. Check out Ian's article here.
[Update: Ian has posted a couple of caveats on his earlier post with questions about the relationship between Kuilima Development Co. and Kuilimia Resort Company. So perhaps this is still a work in progress. Stay tuned for any new information.]
Thursday, January 24, 2008
City Council lets experts choose train, but will cars be the future?
Yesterday's paper added playground equipment to the list of things the City doesn't maintain. Why do we think Mufi's train will still be running a few years after they build it?
If passengers don't enjoy switching from car to bus to train to bus to walking, will the City continue to run it at all, should ridership fail to materialize?
An alternative to the train is on the horizon
We better have a backup plan in case it rusts solid to its tracks.
Fortunately, there is a hot new transportation alternative catching fire around the world: the car! Small, cheap cars. The price of oil surely has something to do with it. So here they come, ready or not!
There is the Smartcar. I'm not sure how this translates to highway utilization, though. Will more cars be able to use the H-1 if they are smaller? At least there will be more parking available if we let them double up in one space. Here's a pic I snapped near St. Andrews.
Regardless of whether they help relieve traffic congestion, smaller, cheaper, more maneuverable cars appearing on the scene would be an incentive for people not to use Mufi's train. Environmentalists are already afraid of what that might mean in India, due to the recent announcement of the Tata Nano, an affordable small car that could drastically boost car ownership there and elsewhere. I don't know what it would mean for the environment if small cars like this become more popular here.
These are the cars
Watch out for the Nano to spread from India to other countries and eventually even to the USA.
Other automakers are poised to bring out small, competitive, affordable cars. Many will never make it past the concept stage, but others will be out on the streets before long. And they will be competing with mass transit systems everywhere.
I don't expect to ever see this next one hit the streets, but it's cute!
When we figure out that the train won't relieve highway congestion on Oahu we'll be in the same fix as other cities. We'll have to make better use of our roads or innovate ways to avoid using cars altogether when possible. Honolulu could have taken measures such as staggered work hours already, but hasn't. It looks very much like we'll have to figure out how to get to work on our own.
So if smaller, cheaper cars become available, people may take matters into their own hands, and avoid the inconvenience of the train. Of course, for most of us, the train won't go anywhere we need it to go anyway. But the small car will take us everywhere.
Bush is coming, but for what?
As a country, we're setting new records for environmental noncompliance. So Bush is coming here for his meeting. Should we celebrate? Why?
U.S. Places Low in Global Environmental Ranking
The United States has placed at the bottom of industrialized countries in a new ranking of global environmental compliance. Researchers at Yale and Columbia listed the U.S. as the worst among the Group of Eight nations and thirty-ninth out of a total one-hundred forty-nine countries on the list.[Democracy Now! headlines, 1/24/08]
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
$350,000 for tugs for the Superferry--where did that money come from?
I wrote about the state subsidy of this commercial operation in a post on Monday. It's kind of corporate welfare, don't you think? Today there is a front-page story in the Advertiser.
Just for fun, I went back to the list of grants-in-aid that have been withheld by Governor Lingle that Ian Lind discovered in the legal notices.
I just picked a few that added up to $350,000. There's no particular reason why I chose these except that they add up to the same $350,000 she is not withholding from the Superferry.
| Aloha Medical Mission | $75,000 | |
| Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association | $50,000 | |
| Assisted Living Options Hawaii | $25,000 | |
| Hawaii Cord Blood Bank | $100,000 | |
| Hawaii Primary Care Association | $50,000 | |
| National Kidney Foundation of Hawaii, Inc. | $50,000 |
Of course, there is no real connection between these organizations not getting their money and the Superferry getting this service from the State. I just think it's illustrative of what's been going on throughout this governor's tenure in office.
And for what is this $350,000 being spent?
Today's passenger count
Thanks again to the Maui volunteer counting corps:
37 cars got off the boat.
2 motorcycles got off the boat.
1 truck with crane on back got off the boat.
3 delivery trucks got off the boat.
10-15 people walked off the boat.
31 cars got on the boat.
1 motorcycle got on the boat.
2 Roberts Hawaii buses got on the boat.
2 flat bed trucks got on the boat.
1 truck with bobcat on trailer got on the boat.
10 people got on the boat.
It's continuing to look as though the State is subsidizing a sinking venture.
Akaku goes to court tomorrow over bidding process
The Maui News report that Akaku Maui Community Television will go before Judge Joel August tomorrow in its quest to have the public bidding process for Hawaii's public access television services set aside.
Read the article here.
I was one of hundreds of people who turned out to testify against putting the contracts out to bid. After a two hour 12 minute secret session held without required notice, the Procurement Policy Board voted that the contracts should go out to bid. My request for minutes of that 2006 meeting is still pending at the Office of Information Practices. It's now more than a year old, and they haven't responded to my recent email asking for the status of the request.
